Expectations: How Do Expectations About Others Form?

When we are in a decision situation with others, we form expectations about their behaviour, which becomes an input to our own subsequent decisions and interactions with them. They do the same about ours. If we want to challenge either – our expectations or theirs – it is useful to understand which variables influence such expectations, and in turn, the mechanisms by which these variables have influence.

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Variables Influencing Expectations About Others

Variable	Description	Related Mechanism
Perceived Mental States	Beliefs, desires, and intentions attributed to others that guide expectation formation.	Theory of Mind
Past Interactions with Others	Previous interactions that refine the ability to predict others’ behavior.	Theory of Mind
Observed Behavior of Others	Behavior observed in others that helps shape expectations about their future actions.	Social Learning Theory
Consequences of Observed Behavior	Consequences of past behaviors that inform future behavioral expectations.	Social Learning Theory
Past Experiences	Personal experiences that contribute to social schemas influencing expectations.	Schema Theory
Social Schema Activation	Activation of cognitive frameworks that guide expected behavior in similar situations.	Schema Theory
Observed Behavior	Behavior assessed for causal attributions to internal traits or external circumstances.	Attribution Theory
Type of Attribution	Dispositional or situational attributions that shape how future behaviors are predicted.	Attribution Theory
Perceived Likelihood of an Outcome	Likelihood estimation of an event that affects expectation strength.	Expectancy-Value Theory
Perceived Value of an Outcome	Value assigned to an outcome that influences expectation formation.	Expectancy-Value Theory
Initial Expectation	Initial assumptions that shape interactions and influence subsequent behaviors.	Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Own Behavior	Self-behavior modifications that reinforce expected responses from others.	Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Category-Based Information	Preconceived notions based on social stereotypes that affect behavior predictions.	Stereotype Activation
Exposure to Individualized Information	Individualized information that helps adjust initial expectations.	Stereotype Activation
Prior Knowledge and Experiences	Past experiences and knowledge that serve as the foundation for expectations.	Bayesian Inference Models
New Information	New insights that refine or challenge prior expectations.	Bayesian Inference Models
Current Emotional State	Emotional states that influence the projection of emotions onto others.	Emotional Prediction
Expected Emotional Responses	Anticipated emotional reactions that shape behavioral predictions.	Emotional Prediction
Perceived Group Norms	Perceived societal norms that influence the expected behavior of group members.	Social Norms and Conformity
Context-Specific Norms	Context-dependent norms that lead to situation-specific expectations.	Social Norms and Conformity

1. Theory of Mind (ToM)

• Perceived Mental States (beliefs, desires, intentions) → Expected Behavior (Premack & Woodruff, 1978): People predict others’ actions by inferring their underlying mental states. If someone appears motivated to achieve a goal, their behavior is expected to align with that goal.
• Past Interactions with Others → Accuracy of Mental State Attribution (Baron-Cohen et al., 1995): The more frequently an individual interacts with someone, the better they become at accurately predicting their behavior based on previous patterns.

2. Social Learning Theory

• Observed Behavior of Others → Formation of Expected Behavior (Bandura, 1977): Individuals learn to predict behavior by watching how others act in various situations. If a manager consistently supports innovation, employees will expect the same approach in future projects.
• Consequences of Observed Behavior → Expectation of Future Actions (Heyes, 2012): If an observed behavior was rewarded or punished, individuals form expectations about whether that behavior is likely to be repeated.

3. Schema Theory

• Past Experiences → Development of Social Schemas (Bartlett, 1932): Repeated experiences shape mental frameworks (schemas) that guide expectations about how others will behave.
• Social Schema Activation → Expected Behavior in Similar Situations (Fiske & Taylor, 1991): When a situation triggers a known schema, individuals automatically predict behavior based on previous encounters in similar contexts.

4. Attribution Theory

• Observed Behavior → Attribution to Internal or External Factors (Heider, 1958): People assess whether an individual’s behavior is caused by personal traits (internal) or external circumstances.
• Type of Attribution (Dispositional/Situational) → Expectation of Future Behavior (Kelley, 1967): If behavior is attributed to personality traits, future behavior is expected to be consistent. If attributed to situational factors, expectations are more flexible.

5. Expectancy-Value Theory

• Perceived Likelihood of an Outcome → Strength of Expectation (Eccles & Wigfield, 2002): The more probable an individual believes an event is, the stronger their expectation for that outcome.
• Perceived Value of an Outcome → Influence on Expectation Formation (Ajzen, 1991): Expectations are shaped not just by likelihood but also by how much the expected outcome matters to the individual.

6. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

• Initial Expectation → Influence on Own Behavior (Rosenthal & Jacobson, 1968): If an individual expects someone to behave in a certain way, they may unconsciously act in ways that encourage that behavior.
• Own Behavior → Response from Others Matching the Expectation (Merton, 1948): The individual’s behavior influences how others respond, often leading to confirmation of the original expectation.

7. Stereotype Activation and Expectation Formation

• Category-Based Information (e.g., Social Stereotypes) → Initial Expectation of Behavior (Devine, 1989): When people categorize others based on group identity, they use stereotypes to predict behavior.
• Exposure to Individualized Information → Adjustment of Expectations (Greenwald et al., 2002): Expectations can change when individuals receive unique, personal information that contradicts stereotypes.

8. Bayesian Inference Models

• Prior Knowledge and Experiences → Initial Expectation Formation (Griffiths & Tenenbaum, 2006): Expectations are initially based on past data and experiences.
• New Information → Updating of Expectations (Knill & Pouget, 2004): When new evidence contradicts prior expectations, individuals adjust their predictions accordingly.

9. Emotional Prediction and Affective Forecasting

• Current Emotional State → Prediction of Others’ Emotional Responses (Gilbert et al., 1998): People project their own emotions onto others, influencing their expectations of how others will react.
• Expected Emotional Responses → Anticipated Behavioral Reactions (Loewenstein et al., 2001): If someone is expected to react emotionally to news, their behavior is anticipated accordingly.

10. Social Norms and Conformity Expectations

• Perceived Group Norms → Expected Behavior of Group Members (Asch, 1951): People expect others to follow social norms that are widely accepted in their community.
• Context-Specific Norms → Adaptation of Expectations Based on Situation (Cialdini & Trost, 1998): Different contexts activate different expectations, as individuals conform to situationally relevant norms.

References

• Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50(2), 179-211.
• Asch, S. E. (1951). Effects of group pressure upon the modification and distortion of judgments. Groups, leadership, and men, 222-236.
• Bandura, A. (1977). Social learning theory. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
• Baron-Cohen, S., Leslie, A. M., & Frith, U. (1995). Does the autistic child have a “theory of mind”? Cognition, 21(1), 37-46.
• Bartlett, F. C. (1932). Remembering: A Study in Experimental and Social Psychology. Cambridge University Press.
• Cialdini, R. B., & Trost, M. R. (1998). Social influence: Social norms, conformity, and compliance. The Handbook of Social Psychology, 4, 151-192.
• Devine, P. G. (1989). Stereotypes and prejudice: Their automatic and controlled components. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 56(1), 5-18.
• Eccles, J. S., & Wigfield, A. (2002). Motivational beliefs, values, and goals. Annual Review of Psychology, 53(1), 109-132.
• Fiske, S. T., & Taylor, S. E. (1991). Social cognition. New York: McGraw-Hill.
• Heider, F. (1958). The psychology of interpersonal relations. New York: Wiley.
• Kelley, H. H. (1967). Attribution theory in social psychology. Nebraska Symposium on Motivation, 15, 192-238.
• Rosenthal, R., & Jacobson, L. (1968). Pygmalion in the classroom: Teacher expectation and pupils’ intellectual development. Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
• Merton, R. K. (1948). The self-fulfilling prophecy. Antioch Review, 8(2), 193-210.