Expectations: How Do Expectations About Others Form?

When we are in a decision situation with others, we form expectations about their behaviour, which becomes an input to our own subsequent decisions and interactions with them. They do the same about ours. If we want to challenge either – our expectations or theirs – it is useful to understand which variables influence such expectations, and in turn, the mechanisms by which these variables have influence.
This text is part of the series on decision governance. Decision Governance is concerned with how to improve the quality of decisions by changing the context, process, data, and tools (including AI) used to make decisions. Understanding decision governance empowers decision makers and decision stakeholders to improve how they make decisions with others. Start with “What is Decision Governance?” and find all texts on decision governance here.
Variables Influencing Expectations About Others
Variable | Description | Related Mechanism |
Perceived Mental States | Beliefs, desires, and intentions attributed to others that guide expectation formation. | Theory of Mind |
Past Interactions with Others | Previous interactions that refine the ability to predict others’ behavior. | Theory of Mind |
Observed Behavior of Others | Behavior observed in others that helps shape expectations about their future actions. | Social Learning Theory |
Consequences of Observed Behavior | Consequences of past behaviors that inform future behavioral expectations. | Social Learning Theory |
Past Experiences | Personal experiences that contribute to social schemas influencing expectations. | Schema Theory |
Social Schema Activation | Activation of cognitive frameworks that guide expected behavior in similar situations. | Schema Theory |
Observed Behavior | Behavior assessed for causal attributions to internal traits or external circumstances. | Attribution Theory |
Type of Attribution | Dispositional or situational attributions that shape how future behaviors are predicted. | Attribution Theory |
Perceived Likelihood of an Outcome | Likelihood estimation of an event that affects expectation strength. | Expectancy-Value Theory |
Perceived Value of an Outcome | Value assigned to an outcome that influences expectation formation. | Expectancy-Value Theory |
Initial Expectation | Initial assumptions that shape interactions and influence subsequent behaviors. | Self-Fulfilling Prophecy |
Own Behavior | Self-behavior modifications that reinforce expected responses from others. | Self-Fulfilling Prophecy |
Category-Based Information | Preconceived notions based on social stereotypes that affect behavior predictions. | Stereotype Activation |
Exposure to Individualized Information | Individualized information that helps adjust initial expectations. | Stereotype Activation |
Prior Knowledge and Experiences | Past experiences and knowledge that serve as the foundation for expectations. | Bayesian Inference Models |
New Information | New insights that refine or challenge prior expectations. | Bayesian Inference Models |
Current Emotional State | Emotional states that influence the projection of emotions onto others. | Emotional Prediction |
Expected Emotional Responses | Anticipated emotional reactions that shape behavioral predictions. | Emotional Prediction |
Perceived Group Norms | Perceived societal norms that influence the expected behavior of group members. | Social Norms and Conformity |
Context-Specific Norms | Context-dependent norms that lead to situation-specific expectations. | Social Norms and Conformity |
1. Theory of Mind (ToM)
- Perceived Mental States (beliefs, desires, intentions) → Expected Behavior (Premack & Woodruff, 1978): People predict others’ actions by inferring their underlying mental states. If someone appears motivated to achieve a goal, their behavior is expected to align with that goal.
- Past Interactions with Others → Accuracy of Mental State Attribution (Baron-Cohen et al., 1995): The more frequently an individual interacts with someone, the better they become at accurately predicting their behavior based on previous patterns.
2. Social Learning Theory
- Observed Behavior of Others → Formation of Expected Behavior (Bandura, 1977): Individuals learn to predict behavior by watching how others act in various situations. If a manager consistently supports innovation, employees will expect the same approach in future projects.
- Consequences of Observed Behavior → Expectation of Future Actions (Heyes, 2012): If an observed behavior was rewarded or punished, individuals form expectations about whether that behavior is likely to be repeated.
3. Schema Theory
- Past Experiences → Development of Social Schemas (Bartlett, 1932): Repeated experiences shape mental frameworks (schemas) that guide expectations about how others will behave.
- Social Schema Activation → Expected Behavior in Similar Situations (Fiske & Taylor, 1991): When a situation triggers a known schema, individuals automatically predict behavior based on previous encounters in similar contexts.
4. Attribution Theory
- Observed Behavior → Attribution to Internal or External Factors (Heider, 1958): People assess whether an individual’s behavior is caused by personal traits (internal) or external circumstances.
- Type of Attribution (Dispositional/Situational) → Expectation of Future Behavior (Kelley, 1967): If behavior is attributed to personality traits, future behavior is expected to be consistent. If attributed to situational factors, expectations are more flexible.
5. Expectancy-Value Theory
- Perceived Likelihood of an Outcome → Strength of Expectation (Eccles & Wigfield, 2002): The more probable an individual believes an event is, the stronger their expectation for that outcome.
- Perceived Value of an Outcome → Influence on Expectation Formation (Ajzen, 1991): Expectations are shaped not just by likelihood but also by how much the expected outcome matters to the individual.
6. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
- Initial Expectation → Influence on Own Behavior (Rosenthal & Jacobson, 1968): If an individual expects someone to behave in a certain way, they may unconsciously act in ways that encourage that behavior.
- Own Behavior → Response from Others Matching the Expectation (Merton, 1948): The individual’s behavior influences how others respond, often leading to confirmation of the original expectation.
7. Stereotype Activation and Expectation Formation
- Category-Based Information (e.g., Social Stereotypes) → Initial Expectation of Behavior (Devine, 1989): When people categorize others based on group identity, they use stereotypes to predict behavior.
- Exposure to Individualized Information → Adjustment of Expectations (Greenwald et al., 2002): Expectations can change when individuals receive unique, personal information that contradicts stereotypes.
8. Bayesian Inference Models
- Prior Knowledge and Experiences → Initial Expectation Formation (Griffiths & Tenenbaum, 2006): Expectations are initially based on past data and experiences.
- New Information → Updating of Expectations (Knill & Pouget, 2004): When new evidence contradicts prior expectations, individuals adjust their predictions accordingly.
9. Emotional Prediction and Affective Forecasting
- Current Emotional State → Prediction of Others’ Emotional Responses (Gilbert et al., 1998): People project their own emotions onto others, influencing their expectations of how others will react.
- Expected Emotional Responses → Anticipated Behavioral Reactions (Loewenstein et al., 2001): If someone is expected to react emotionally to news, their behavior is anticipated accordingly.
10. Social Norms and Conformity Expectations
- Perceived Group Norms → Expected Behavior of Group Members (Asch, 1951): People expect others to follow social norms that are widely accepted in their community.
- Context-Specific Norms → Adaptation of Expectations Based on Situation (Cialdini & Trost, 1998): Different contexts activate different expectations, as individuals conform to situationally relevant norms.
References
- Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50(2), 179-211.
- Asch, S. E. (1951). Effects of group pressure upon the modification and distortion of judgments. Groups, leadership, and men, 222-236.
- Bandura, A. (1977). Social learning theory. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
- Baron-Cohen, S., Leslie, A. M., & Frith, U. (1995). Does the autistic child have a “theory of mind”? Cognition, 21(1), 37-46.
- Bartlett, F. C. (1932). Remembering: A Study in Experimental and Social Psychology. Cambridge University Press.
- Cialdini, R. B., & Trost, M. R. (1998). Social influence: Social norms, conformity, and compliance. The Handbook of Social Psychology, 4, 151-192.
- Devine, P. G. (1989). Stereotypes and prejudice: Their automatic and controlled components. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 56(1), 5-18.
- Eccles, J. S., & Wigfield, A. (2002). Motivational beliefs, values, and goals. Annual Review of Psychology, 53(1), 109-132.
- Fiske, S. T., & Taylor, S. E. (1991). Social cognition. New York: McGraw-Hill.
- Heider, F. (1958). The psychology of interpersonal relations. New York: Wiley.
- Kelley, H. H. (1967). Attribution theory in social psychology. Nebraska Symposium on Motivation, 15, 192-238.
- Rosenthal, R., & Jacobson, L. (1968). Pygmalion in the classroom: Teacher expectation and pupils’ intellectual development. Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
- Merton, R. K. (1948). The self-fulfilling prophecy. Antioch Review, 8(2), 193-210.
Decision Governance
This text is part of the series on the design of decision governance. Other texts on the same topic are linked below. This list expands as I add more texts on decision governance.
- Introduction to Decision Governance
- Stakeholders of Decision Governance
- Foundations of Decision Governance
- How to Spot Decisions in the Wild?
- When Is It Useful to Reify Decisions?
- Decision Governance Is Interdisciplinary
- Individual Decision-Making: Common Models in Economics
- Group Decision-Making: Common Models in Economics
- Individual Decision-Making: Common Models in Psychology
- Group Decision-Making: Common Models in Organizational Theory
- Role of Explanations in the Design of Decision Governance
- Design of Decision Governance
- Design Parameters of Decision Governance
- Factors influencing how an individual selects and processes information in a decision situation, including which information the individual seeks and selects to use:
- Psychological factors, which are determined by the individual, including their reaction to other factors:
- Attention:
- Memory:
- Mood:
- Emotions:
- Commitment:
- Temporal Distance:
- Social Distance:
- Expectations
- Uncertainty
- Attitude:
- Values:
- Goals:
- Preferences:
- Competence
- Social factors, which are determined by relationships with others:
- Impressions of Others:
- Reputation:
- Social Hierarchies:
- Social Hierarchies: Why They Matter for Decision Governance
- Social Hierarchies: Benefits and Limitations in Decision Processes
- Social Hierarchies: How They Form and Change
- Power: Influence on Decision Making and Its Risks
- Power: Relationship to Psychological Factors in Decision Making
- Power: Sources of Legitimacy and Implications for Decision Authority
- Power: Stability and Destabilization of Legitimacy
- Power: What If High Decision Authority Is Combined With Low Power
- Power: How Can Low Power Decision Makers Be Credible?
- Social Learning:
- Psychological factors, which are determined by the individual, including their reaction to other factors:
- Factors influencing information the individual can gain access to in a decision situation, and the perception of possible actions the individual can take, and how they can perform these actions:
- Governance factors, which are rules applicable in the given decision situation:
- Incentives:
- Incentives: Components of Incentive Mechanisms
- Incentives: Example of a Common Incentive Mechanism
- Incentives: Building Out An Incentive Mechanism From Scratch
- Incentives: Negative Consequences of Incentive Mechanisms
- Crowding-Out Effect: The Wrong Incentives Erode the Right Motives
- Crowding-In Effect: The Right Incentives Amplify the Right Motives
- Rules
- Rules-in-use
- Rules-in-form
- Institutions
- Incentives:
- Technological factors, or tools which influence how information is represented and accessed, among others, and how communication can be done
- Environmental factors, or the physical environment, humans and other organisms that the individual must and can interact with
- Governance factors, which are rules applicable in the given decision situation:
- Factors influencing how an individual selects and processes information in a decision situation, including which information the individual seeks and selects to use:
- Change of Decision Governance
- Public Policy and Decision Governance:
- Compliance to Policies:
- Transformation of Decision Governance
- Mechanisms for the Change of Decision Governance