How to Price Distraction in Decision Making?

Distraction seems like a strange thing to price, but if you consider it in the context of decision making, it definitely has a price – if the decision maker is distracted, it will take them more effort to reach their goal. A simple simulation can be done to show just how much distraction may cost relative to a case when the agent’s attention is directed to the goal.

This text is part of the series on the design of decision governance. Decision Governance refers to values, principles, practices designed to improve the quality of decisions. Find all texts on decision governance here, including “What is Decision Governance?” here.

Let’s say we have an agent who moves through a grid from a starting position to a goal position. The agent does not know the goal position. 

We then put in place decision governance that at every step directs the agent’s attention to the goal position. If that governance is absent, the agent is distracted and is choosing randomly its next steps. In addition, and simply to avoid very large numbers of steps that the agent could take, there will in both cases be decision governance that ensures the agent avoids revisiting positions, unless there is no other choice.

The price of distraction is the difference between the number of steps the agent will take on average to reach the goal, in each of the two cases: when the agent’s attention is directed to the goal position, and when it isn’t.

Two sets of simulation runs are executed, each of 30 runs. The grid that the agent moves through has 30 x 30, or 900 positions. The starting position is in the upper left corner, the goal in the lower right corner of the grid.

The histogram below shows the case when the agent is distracted. On average, it took about 2100 steps to reach the goal, with a standard deviation of about 1660 steps.

The following shows the paths taken when the agent is distracted. What you cannot see below is that the agent revisited some of the positions.

If the agent is not distracted, that is, its attention is directed through decision governance to the goal, the histogram over 30 simulation runs is quite different. It is shown below. The agent took on average about 100 steps with a standard deviation of about 25 steps. 21 times fewer steps on average than when distracted in the way I defined distraction above.

The runs expectedly show simpler paths.

Distraction can be worse – we can distract the agent not by having it randomly choose the next step, but by directing its attention away from the goal. The impact is simple to anticipate – the number of steps will increase further.
Using the decision governance design space terminology from the text here, the parameters governed in the simulations above are Attention and Memory, across all stages of the decision process. This is shown in the image below.

Having more runs in the simulations does not change the observations above. The histogram below is for 1,000 runs of the distracted agent.

The following histogram shows steps across 1,000 runs for the agent whose attention is directed to the goal at each step.

Decision Governance

This text is part of the series on the design of decision governance. Other texts on the same topic are linked below. This list expands as I add more texts on decision governance.

Introduction to Decision Governance

1. What is Decision Governance?
2. What Is a High Quality Decision?
3. When is Decision Governance Needed?
4. When is Decision Governance Valuable?
5. How Much Decision Governance Is Enough?
6. Are Easy Options the Likely Choice?
7. Can Decision Governance Be a Source of Competitive Advantage?

Stakeholders of Decision Governance 

1. Who Is Responsible for Decision Governance in a Firm?
2. Who are the Stakeholders of Decision Governance?
3. What Interests Do Stakeholders Have in Decision Governance?
4. What the Organizational Chart Says about Decision Governance

Foundations of Decision Governance

1. How to Spot Decisions in the Wild?
2. When Is It Useful to Reify Decisions?
3. Decision Governance Is Interdisciplinary
4. Individual Decision-Making: Common Models in Economics
5. Group Decision-Making: Common Models in Economics
6. Individual Decision-Making: Common Models in Psychology
7. Group Decision-Making: Common Models in Organizational Theory

Role of Explanations in the Design of Decision Governance

1. Explaining Decisions
2. Simple & Intuitive Models of Decision Explanations
3. Max(Utility) from Variety & Taste
4. Expected Uncertainty to Unexpected Utility
5. Perceptiveness & Experience Shape Rapid Choices

Design of Decision Governance

1. The Design Space for Decision Governance
2. Decision Governance Concepts: Situations, Actions, Commitments and Decisions
3. Decision Governance Concepts: Outcomes to Explanations
4. Slow & Complex Decision Governance and Its Consequences

Design Parameters of Decision Governance

Design parameters of decision governance, or factors that influence decision making and that we can influence through decision governance:

• Factors influencing how an individual selects and processes information
• Factors influencing information the individual can gain access to

Factors influencing how an individual selects and processes information in a decision situation, including which information the individual seeks and selects to use:

1. Psychological factors, which are determined by the individual, including their reaction to other factors:
   1. Attention:
      • Attention Depends on Stimuli & Goals
      • Motivated Reasoning: How To Detect And Mitigate Its Risks
   2. Memory:
      • Selective Memory Can Be Desirable
   3. Mood
   4. Emotions:
      • Emotions Mediate Decisions Always and Everywhere
   5. Temporal Distance:
      • Why Perception of Long Term Outcomes Should Be Influenced First?
   6. Social Distance:
      • Increased Social Distance (Over)Simplifies Explanations
   7. Expectations
   8. Uncertainty
   9. Attitude
   10. Values
   11. Goals:
       • Goals: How Goals Shape Decisions
       • Goals: How Goals Form and Change
       • Goals: Factors That Stabilize and Destabilize Goals
       • Goals: Factors Influencing Goal Selection
       • Goals: How to Improve Alignment to a Team Goal
   12. Preferences
   13. Competence
2. Social factors, which are determined by relationships with others:
   1. Impressions Of Others: How They Influence Decisions And How To Regulate Them
   2. Reputation
   3. Social Hierarchies:
      • Social Hierarchies: Why They Matter for Decision Governance
      • Social Hierarchies: Benefits and Limitations in Decision Processes
      • Social Hierarchies: How They Form and Change 
      • Power: Influence on Decision Making and Its Risks
      • Power: Relationship to Psychological Factors in Decision Making
      • Power: Sources of Legitimacy and Implications for Decision Authority
      • Power: Stability and Destabilization of Legitimacy

Factors influencing information the individual can gain access to in a decision situation, and the perception of possible actions the individual can take, and how they can perform these actions:

• Governance factors, which are rules applicable in the given decision situation:
  1. Incentives
     • Incentives: Components of Incentive Mechanisms
     • Incentives: Example of a Common Incentive Mechanism
     • Incentives: Building Out An Incentive Mechanism From Scratch
  2. Rules
     • Rules-in-use
     • Rules-in-form
  3. Institutions
• Technological factors, or tools which influence how information is represented and accessed, among others, and how communication can be done
• Environmental factors, or the physical environment, humans and other organisms that the individual must and can interact with
  1. Detail: Level of Detail Can Influence Probability Estimates

Change of Decision Governance

1. Public Policy and Decision Governance:
   • What is the Role of Public Policy in Decision Governance?
   • Dynamics of Public Policy Development
   • How Does Public Policy Influence Decision-Making?
2. Compliance to Policies:
   • Adapting a Decision Process to Comply with a Policy
   • How a Decision Process Can Create Evidence of Compliance
3. Transformation of Decision Governance
   • Punctuated Equilibrium: How to know if a Decision Process is ready for disruption
   • Policy Windows: What They Are And When They Occur
4. Mechanisms for the Change of Decision Governance
   • Incrementalism: What it is, and when/how to implement it in decision governance
   • Governance Dynamics: Change Driven by Cases and Principles
   • Governance Dynamics: Case-Based Development of Decision Governance